Aging pressure mountain 13 provinces and cities to move to hedge many places have quietly encouraged-木村kaela

Aging Alexander: 13 provinces and more moves hedge has been quietly encouraging birth aging pressure Alexander, 13 provinces and more moves hedge has been quietly encouraging birth – reporter Wang Haichun reported in Shanghai population may be the latest economic dividends. With this sentence to describe the current various places have introduced "to promote the birth of long holidays" policy, I am afraid again image. If February 23rd has corrected planning regulations of Shanghai in the country has 13 provinces and the introduction of the new regulations on the extension of maternity leave, the other provinces are also stepping up efforts to amend the respective regulations. Even now the shift from family planning to full liberalization of the two child policy, China’s labor shortage in a short period of time has also been difficult to improve. The National Bureau of statistics released by the end of January, the national birth population in 2015 was 16 million 550 thousand, compared to 2014 decreased slightly 320 thousand. In March last year, the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences issued a report that the proportion of local labor force in Shanghai is low, a large number of migrant workers to fill the employment demand, the city’s registered permanent residence population accounted for less than 60% of the proportion of the resident population. Another worrying issue about the decline in birth population is whether China will advance into the pre mature age. Facing the emerging new problems, experts believe that China’s population policy is likely to undergo a major change. The current demographic policy shift from plan to encouragement may just reflect this trend. Old people and new students, even those with a permanent population of more than 24 million such as Shanghai, are also full of longing for the new population. In February 23rd, Congress passed the Shanghai population and family planning regulations amendment, according to the new method, the newly married couple in the country to enjoy legal marriage, can also add 7 days of marriage. In addition, women of childbearing age can enjoy 30 maternity leave in addition to the State stipulated maternity leave, and the spouse’s paternity leave will be adjusted to 10 days. The extension of maternity leave in Shanghai will begin in March 1st, one week after the enactment of the ordinance. Some scholars believe that such a policy is actually indirectly encourage multiple births, to create a second child conditions. It’s not just Shanghai that indirectly encourages babies. Deadline to reporters, the current Anhui, Fujian and other 12 provinces and cities nationwide has introduced the new planning regulations, made adjustments to the period of maternity leave and male escort. The adjustment was almost focused on prolonging maternity leave: the longest 180 days of maternity leave and the shortest 128 days. In addition to the aforementioned 13 provinces and cities, Hebei, Jiangsu and other provinces and cities of the new family planning ordinance is also in full swing revision process, and will be considered around March. As for the new regulations for extending maternity leave and accompanying care, experts pointed out that behind the encouragement of multiple births, the government is worried about the population structure, pension and economic development. Shanghai, a government policy advisory expert, believes that Shanghai has a high degree of aging, and other cities are facing similar problems: the growth rate of the new population is worrying. Ding Jian, a professor of finance at the University of Finance and economics, said that the growth of the young labor force was insufficient, followed by the burden of social pension

老龄化压力山大:13省市出招对冲 多地已悄然鼓励生育   老龄化压力山大,13省市出招对冲 多地已悄然鼓励生育   ■本报记者 王海春 上海报道   人口或许是最新的经济红利。用这句话来形容当下各地纷纷出台“以长假促生育”的政策,恐怕再形象不过。如果将2月23日刚修正计生条例的上海算入其中,全国已经有13个省市出台了延长产假的新条例,其余省市也在加紧修订各自的条例。   即便是现在由计划生育转向全面放开二孩政策,短时间内中国的劳动力缺乏状况也已经难以改善。国家统计局1月底公布的统计数据显示,2015年全国出生人口为1655万,比2014年小幅减少32万。去年3月上海社科院发布报告称,上海本地劳动力人口占比低,大量依靠外来人口填补用工需求,本市户籍人口占常住人口比例已低于60%。   出生人口减少进而引发出的另一个令人担忧的问题则是中国是否会提前进入未富先老。   面对不断涌现出的新问题,专家们认为,中国的人口政策很有可能会发生重大转变。目前的人口政策由计划转向鼓励或许恰恰折射出了这一趋势。   老龄与新生   即使是像上海这样常住人口已经超过2400万的特大城市,同样充满着对新生人口的渴望。   2月23日,上海人大通过了人口与计划生育条例修正案,按新的办法,新婚夫妇在享受国家法定婚假外,还可再增加7天婚假。此外,育龄妇女除了可享受国家规定的产假外,还可以再享受30天生育假;而配偶的陪产假也将调整为10天。上海这项延长产假的规定,在条例颁布后的一周,即今年3月1日起就将开始施行。   有学者认为,这样的政策其实是间接鼓励多生娃,给生二胎创造条件。而间接鼓励生娃的,不止是上海。   至记者截稿为止,目前安徽、福建等全国12个省市先后出台了新的计生条例,对产假和男性陪护期做出了调整。调整几乎均集中在延长产假时间:产假最长的180天,最短也有128天。除前述13个省市,河北、江苏等省市新的计生条例也在紧锣密鼓地修订过程中,并将于3月前后进行审议。   对于各地忙着出台新的延长产假和陪护假的条例,专家指出,鼓励多生育的背后,其实是政府对人口结构、养老、经济发展的隐忧。   上海一位政府决策咨询专家认为,上海的老龄化程度已经很高,其它几个一线城市也面临着类似的困扰:新生人口的增长速度令人担忧。   财经大学金融学院教授丁健表示,年轻劳动人口增长不足,紧随而来的是社会养老负担过重的问题。“中国的其它不少城市,也正在逐步进入老龄化社会,如果不能及早解决,将对中国的发展造成困扰。”丁健说。   公开资料显示,目前上海老年人已超过400万,迈入深度老龄化城市行列,位居全国之首。   养老压力还在加大   比老龄化更为棘手的另一个问题就是未富先老。   据中国社科院此前发布的《中国养老金发展报告2015》,在全国31个省份中,2014年只有8个省份的养老金征缴收入大于支出,比上年减少4个。而其余的23个省份,都出现了当期扣除财政补贴养老金收不抵支的情况,辽宁、黑龙江、湖北、河北、湖南和吉林6个省份缺口共计1666亿元。   “谁来帮上一代养老,如何降低养老成本,成为摆在当下和未来不得不面对的现实。”上海一位决策咨询专家说。   另一项数据显示,近年来社保基金收入年均增幅由20%降到10%左右,而支出的增幅则居高不下。   一位不愿具名的学者告诉记者,解决养老金紧张需要更多的制度安排和顶层设计。“是否可以两条腿走路:养老金和社会保险并行。一方面扩大社会基本养老金的覆盖面,同时辅以社会商业保险。即基本养老金作为保底,社会保险作为补充。”上述学者说。   由人口结构引发养老问题的同时,中国还要面对着如何超越中等收入国家陷阱的挑战。   上海社会科学院一位研究员表示,一切问题解决的关键,都在于人。在经济结构调整的关键时期,中国也需要新的生力军。   “重大问题的解决不仅需要制度安排,还需要历史给我们一定的时间缓冲。有的需要通过代系的传承,通过很多代人的努力,才能真正解决。而这其中通过调整人口结构,来延缓社会老龄化到来的时间,也不失为一种策略。”中国房地产数据研究院执行院长陈晟表示。   用更年轻的新生人口,来对冲老龄化社会,进而带来新一轮的人口红利。   这样的办法是否真的奏效,对此福卡智库认为,人口这条老路救不了生了病的经济结构。   “以政策作为武器来提高生育率,作用已日渐式微。事实上,社会观念变迁使得‘想生不能生’变成‘不想生’、‘不想多生’。” 福卡智库首席经济学家王德培认为。   有数据统计,早在2013年开放“单独二胎”的政策时,“单独二胎”仅带来47万新生儿,还不到200万预期值的四分之一。福卡智库整理的数据显示,以广州市一个中产阶层家庭为例,养育一个孩子的花费就高达68万-230万左右。   在丁健看来,通过政策鼓励生二胎在时间上存在真空,只能是一个临时救急的办法。“关键是生育成本的问题。养育孩子的成本过高,让生二胎的人望而却步。”丁健说。   关于老龄化,国家主席习近平日前作出重要指示,有效应对我国人口老龄化,事关国家发展全局。如何立足当前、着眼长远,完善生育、就业、养老等重大政策和制度,需要政府加强一系列的顶层设计和制度安排。   如何应对老龄化,人口政策走向是否会发生变化,也引发了社会的高度关注。有专家认为,未来政府可能会将此提上国家重要议事日程,并在“十三五”期间得到落实。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: