Bond yields near historic lows cause and effect of gain’s us 10 year

Carsem group: the United States 10 – year bond yields near historic lows cause and effect of our research usually focus on specific trading opportunities of foreign exchange market, commodity market and stock market. But if we ignore one of the most volatile markets in the world, and some call it the smartest market, the bond market, it’s dereliction of duty. Although the media are talking about raising the interest rate environment, the long-term bond yields are actually at or near the lowest point in history. At the beginning of this week, Japan’s 10 year government bonds had been negative for the first time in history, and another global haven, Germany, reported a rate of interest near 0.19%. Maybe in that context, we think the 10 year Treasury yields in the U.S. are 1.64% fair and reasonable, but this figure is close to the historic low of 1.53% in July 2012. In fact, the interest rate has fallen by nearly 20 basis points this week, so the global benchmark market could be effectively reduced to a historic low as long as one day of panic. What does this mean for traders? Tracing back to the bottom, part of the decline in interest rates was attributable to the fall in the "risk neutral" sub index of interest rates that the federal funds rate expected for the next 10 years. In other words, the decline in US bond yields confirms the view that traders are likely to lower the likelihood of the Fed’s positive interest rate hike because of the decline in inflation expectations. But the 10 year bond yields have another sub index related to the Fed, the so-called "time premium", that is, the longer held bonds of the borrower, rather than the additional returns required to invest in a series of short-term securities. The longer the fund is locked, the less convenient it is to govern. So traders are demanding higher returns most of the time. Here, the time premium seems to have fallen sharply, probably because of the need for hedging. So, as long as the global market turmoil, Treasury yields will likely continue to remain low; on the other hand, if the current global shocks subsided, even in the absence of traders to predict the fed the factors of specific interest rate hike schedule, Treasury yields may begin to rise. Sina statement: Sina published this article for the purpose of transmitting more information, does not mean to agree with its views or to confirm its description. This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly and take risks at their own expense.

嘉盛集团:美10年期债券殖利率逼近历史低点原因及影响   我们的研究报告通常把重点放在外汇市场、商品市场和股市的具体交易机会。但如果我们忽略了一个正在剧烈波动的、全球最重要的市场(有些人称其为“最聪明”的市场),即债市,那就是失职。   虽然媒体谈论的都是准备迎接“加息环境”,但中长期债券殖利率实际上处于或者逼近历史最低点。本周初,日本10年期政府债券有史以来首度进入负值;另一全球避风港德国的殖利率截至此文发稿报在0.19%附近。   也许联系那样的上下文,我们会觉得美国10年期国债殖利率报在1.64%合情合理,但这个数字距离2012年7月创下的历史低点1.53%已近在咫尺。实际上,这个殖利率本周已经下跌近20个基点,所以,全球市场只要再恐慌一天,美国基准殖利率就可能也被有效带到历史低点。   这对交易员意味着什么?   追根溯源,殖利率下跌的一部分原因可以归于反映未来10年联邦基金利率预期的“风险-中性”殖利率分项指标的下跌。换言之,美国债券殖利率下跌,印证了交易员主要因为通胀预期减退而认为美联储积极加息的可能性降低的观点。   但10年期债券殖利率有另一项与美联储有关的分项指标,即所谓的“时间溢价”,也就是借款人持有时间较长的债券而不是投资于一系列短期有价证券所要求的额外回报。资金锁定的时间越长,支配起来就越不方便。所以交易员绝大多数时间里会要求更高的回报。在这里,时间溢价似乎也大幅下降,原因也许是避险需求。   所以,只要全球市场继续动荡,美债殖利率可能将继续保持在低位;反之,如果当前全球震荡消退,即使缺少交易员预测美联储有具体加息日程这一因素,美债殖利率也可能开始上扬。 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。相关的主题文章: